FAC Research in Housing Agency Report
Dr William Hynes is presenting this afternoon at the launch of the Housing Agency’s ‘National Statement of Housing Supply and Demand 2016 and Outlook for 2017-18‘ in Dublin Castle.
The National Statement incorporates research undertaken by Future Analytics Consulting to estimate the amount of minimum housing required over the next five years, up to and including 2020 .
The analysis is underpinned by projected demographic changes and trends in household composition (i.e. the number of people in a house) to identify the underlying causes of housing demand and where insufficient supply is likely to occur.
Advancing earlier research by FAC into the Housing Supply Requirements of Ireland’s Urban Settlements (2014-2018), this Preliminary Update (2016-2020) incorporates presently available Census 2016 data as a means to advance our understanding of supply constraints throughout Ireland. The research also expands the original 272 urban settlements to 445 and carries forward the period to 2020.
Employing a variety of modelling approaches, FAC undertook projections of population, household composition, intercensal trends, vacancy rates, housing stock and obsolescence rates, to derive settlement-specific minimum requirements.
More than three million Irish people live in an urban area – 68% of the national population. This figure is expected to grow by 8.6% to 2020. Of the areas included in the research, 56% are set to experience a supply deficit in the minimum number of homes required in this period. To meet the minimum requirement, 81,118 homes will be needed nationally (including 44,902 across the five cities).
43% (35,242) of the national minimum requirement is needed in the Dublin City Region, with 10% (8,434) in the Cork City Region. Limerick, Galway and Waterford are also projected to experience an undersupply in housing and together account for 7.9% or 6,465 of the projected national unmet minimum housing requirement.
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