ESRI Research on Future Healthcare Demand
The ESRI has today published research on projected future healthcare demand (and expenditure) in Ireland to 2030 by assessing current service utilisation across a range of health and social care services. This stems from work they have done with the Department of Health and the Government as far back as 2014, to better inform the development of health policy in future years.
The main findings include:
• The more obvious expected patterns of overall increased demand in the older aged cohort, but also that service utilisation is set to increase across all age cohorts and services;
• They project that demand for public hospital services may increase by up to 37% in the case of inpatient bed days;
• Private hospital services too are projected to face up to a 32% for same;
• Home care is projected to require an increase in hours of up to 54% and an increase in packages by 66%;
• Demand for GP visits may increase by up to 27%;
• Emergency attendances may increase by up to 27% as well.
• Mental health or disability programmes are not included (due to further research needed).
These estimates assume no change to models of care.
The planning and development implications of these levels of potential unmet demand will influence a lot of thinking around infrastructural investment and zoning. It is the only report of its type to assess so many factors in such a comprehensive way.
The methodology itself is fairly straightforward – despite being a composite of macro/microsimulation, computable general equilibrium (which specifically models for how economics are impacted by policy and external factors) and time series modelling.
• It looks at activity rates and sets these against the projected population, at a year of age and gender thresholds (to quantify likely demand).
• It then looks at unit costs for services and outputs projected expenditure, accounting for variable changes in economic conditions.
In tandem with healthcare, the future needs projection of housing demand and educational requirements are also critical if solutions are to reflect future trends are to be developed in time. Future Analytics has been involved in shaping housing policy and debate in particular over the past number of years, with recent research on Minimum Housing Requirements across Ireland’s Urban Settlements and The Cost of Renting Student Accommodation.
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FAC is a leading Chartered Town Planning, Development and Socio-economic Analytics Consultancy based in Dublin with an extensive project portfolio throughout Ireland. FAC has extensive experience in town and village renewal, town and village health checks, and settlement profiling.